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Three dynamics within the Dutch housing market

By on 19 October 2016

In their ambitions to move to other places, citizen’s choices are often influenced by market dynamics. Savingsmonitor.eu highlights three Dutch housing market trends that have significant influence on choices of Dutch habitants.

David-Jan Jansen, a researcher from the central bank of the Netherlands (DNB), recently discussed research that utilizes Dutch household survey statistics to examine housing and mortgage dynamics. Jansen points to the relevancy of the researches, given the fact that Dutch people experienced three important dynamics on the Dutch housing market the past years.

  • Firstly, loan-to-value ratios are declining after decades of continuing growth,
  • secondly, housing prices are fastly increasing after a steep drop during 2008-2014,
  • while thirdly, the housing sale experiences a strong uplift after a dip triggered by the financial crisis in 2008.

So what are we exactly talking about? This article discusses the three dynamics more deeply.

Loan-t0-value decrease

After years of continuous increase, Dutch survey data shows that loan-to-value ratios for first-time buyers in the housing market is starting to decrease. This drop follows a loan-to-value increase that lasted for decades.

More precisely, the increase of the loan-to-value ratio started to climb since the eighties. This basically means that credit suppliers were increasingly financing the complete price of a house. Additionally, mortgages also were increasingly including costs-to-buyer obligations.

The stagnation and decline of this ratio is partly due to a measure of the Dutch government, that makes it obligatory for buyers to pay a(n increasing) percentage of the costs-to-buyer.

Infographic: development of loan-to-value ratio The Netherlands

loantovaluerationetherlands

Source: Financieele Dagblad, based on data of the Dutch central bank (DNB).

Housing price increase

The housing prices in the Netherlands are increasing strongly, especially since 2015. By contrast, from a peak in mid-2008, house prices have declined by almost 25%. It was not until 2014 this trend slowly turned.

Now there’s a house price boom, especially in the capital Amsterdam, with prices significantly topping the amount the current owners had to pay for earlier.

housingpriceindex

Source: Rabobank

Housing sale increase

Simultaneously as to be expected, the Dutch housing sale market experiences a strong uplift since 2014. By contrast, there was a strong decrease in the number of sold houses between 2008 and 2014. At its lowest, this number was halved compared to pre-crisis levels.

Alongside the decrease in sales during the crisis years, the credit growth was stagnating. The growth in supplying mortgages, which had been strong since the early 2000s, came to an end when the financial crisis became apparent. Since then there has been a persistent reversal in the flows of mortgage lending, even turning in negative numbers. And, as well to be expected, the last two years the Dutch witness a credit growth again since the housing sales are increasing.

dwellingsnetherlands

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Bas van Essen
Frankfurt

Savingsmonitor is a news blog reporting about savings behavior and statistics across whole the European Union. Bas van Essen is responsible for the content. Bas is a former business reporter, who covered the Dutch startup scene, the job market and personal finance. Bas served the Dutch Financial Times ('Financieele Dagblad'), the Dutch 'Financiële Telegraaf', Sprout.nl, Intermediair.nl and IDG. He followed a Master Communication Science and MBA Big Data & Business Analytics at the University of Amsterdam.