Visegrad household savings: mostly driven by GDP
GDP has a significant effect on total savings in Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland. That’s concluded in ‘Panel analysis of the influence of macroeconomic factors on the household savings’, published by researcher Jan Buleca in October this year.
The present extending fall in real consumption in the Euro zone is rooted in slightly increasing nominal disposable incomes, growth of inflation, as well as by tax changes and advancements in the savings rate.
Buleca and Peter Toth, both researchers at the University of Kosice, looked more closely to the growing savings rate across European countries. They focussed on Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland, also known as the Visegrad group. Goal was to find out which factor(s) have a statistically significant impact on household saving in these countries.
Savings are, just as income and household wealth, widely discussed topics within the financial industry and the ECB. Households namely participate in the entire national economy, and their consumption and savings largely affect economic aspects of the whole country. Mastering the impact of these factors is important not only for future economic planning and determination of prognosis, but also for calibrating of risk, and setting the macroeconomic policy.
The research setup:
The researchers examined the effect of the following four independent variables on Visegrad household savings, over a time span of 10 years:
• GDP in € millions, b. c.,
• Unemployment rate in %,
• inflation rate in %,
• gross disposable income in € millions.
Household savings were measured by the volume of gross savings in € millions. The data were structured as panel data, subtracted from the Eurostat (2015) and OECD databases (2015).
Results: GDP significant
Performance of the analysis proved that in all three executed models (pooling model, fixed effects model and random-effects model), the GDP appears to have a statistically significant impact on household saving. A GDP increase by € 1 million led to an increase in gross domestic savings by € 0.20464 million.
Unemployment had a negative impact on the savings, the increase in the unemployment rate by 1 percentage point caused a drop in gross domestic savings by € 969.70156 million.
Country differences and similarities
The statistics of the researchers also show differences in income in the Visegrad group. Total savings in Hungary continuously increased for example during the crisis years, whereas the Polish total savings went down drastically in 2011. Total savings remained relatively stable in the Czech Republic, while in Slovakia total savings dropped heavily in 2009 and then climbed up again.
All countries show the same income and consumption pattern, going down or stagnating around 2008 and 2009, then increasing and slightly dropping or stagnating again in 2011 and/or 2012.
See more within the stats below: